Real Estate Market by Province Canada: Price & Trend Guide

British Columbia and Ontario are cooling, while Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador are setting price records. Benchmark prices run from $342,600 in New Brunswick up to $887,100 in British Columbia. Inventory swings just as hard, from 2.5 months of supply in Saskatchewan to 6.4 months out west. There’s no single national number that describes this country accurately. Local supply, migration patterns, and mortgage renewal pressure set the pace in each province on their own terms.

What Is the Real Estate Market by Province Canada Right Now?

Split roughly down the middle, price gains in one half, declines in the other. Five provinces hit fresh price records in June 2026: Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island. Ontario and British Columbia kept falling over that same stretch. The national benchmark price sat at $665,600, down 3.6% from a year earlier, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That single figure hides a lot. Newfoundland and Labrador gained 10.8% year-over-year. Ontario dropped 4.6% over the same window. Someone shopping off the national average alone would miss both stories completely.

National sales reached 38,014 in June 2026, up 0.5% from May but down 2.2% year-over-year. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) climbed to 50.2%, which puts the country in balanced territory on paper. SNLR compares monthly sales against new listings: below 40% signals a buyer’s market, 40% to 60% is balanced, above 60% favors sellers. That “balanced” national figure is really an average of two extremes: full seller’s-market conditions across the Prairies, and a clear buyer’s advantage on the West Coast.

How Home Prices Compare Across Canadian Provinces

British Columbia has the highest benchmark home price in the country at $887,100. New Brunswick has the lowest at $342,600. Ontario sits second at $753,300, well ahead of everyone else. What matters here isn’t just the number, it’s the direction each province is heading.

Province	Benchmark Price (June 2026)	Annual Change
British Columbia	$887,100	-5.0%
Ontario	$753,300	-4.6%
Quebec	$550,400	+4.3%
Alberta	$516,600	-1.7%
Nova Scotia	$431,700	-1.3%
Manitoba	$398,700	+3.8%
Saskatchewan	$385,900	+4.8%
Prince Edward Island	$383,300	+1.4%
Newfoundland and Labrador	$358,000	+10.8%
New Brunswick	$342,600	+5.9%

Six provinces posted annual growth, four posted declines, and the split runs almost exactly along a west-versus-east line. British Columbia and Ontario lost value. The Prairies and Atlantic Canada gained it.

Which Provinces Have the Tightest and Loosest Housing Supply?

Saskatchewan has the tightest supply in the country at 2.5 months. British Columbia has the loosest at 6.4 months. Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current sales pace. Under 4 months usually favors sellers; over 6 usually favors buyers.

Three bands define where things stand right now:

• Seller-favored (under 3 months): Saskatchewan at 2.5 months, Alberta at 2.8 months.
• Balanced (4 to 5 months): Ontario at 4.2 months, Nova Scotia at 4.5 months, Newfoundland and Labrador at 4.6 months.
• Buyer-favored (5.5 months and up): Quebec at 5.3 months, Prince Edward Island at 5.9 months, British Columbia at 6.4 months.

Construction hasn’t kept up with population growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and that’s the main reason both markets stay tight. British Columbia carries the biggest listing surplus relative to demand of any major provincial market tracked. Multiple-offer conditions on a well-priced home are still routine in Regina. In Vancouver, that same buyer would have real room to push back on price and closing terms.

What’s Driving the Real Estate Market by Province Canada in 2026?

Three forces are doing most of the work this year: interest rate stability, trade tariffs on construction materials, and shifting immigration patterns. They push different provinces in different directions, which is exactly why no single national trend fits.

Interest Rates and Mortgage Renewals

Rates are holding steady rather than falling, which takes away a source of demand that fueled past recoveries. The Bank of Canada has kept its policy rate near 2.25%, and TD Economics forecasts the 5-year bond yield staying close to 2.9% through 2027. A large share of outstanding mortgages renew in 2026, many at higher rates than their original terms; five-year fixed loans from the low-rate years make up the biggest group facing this reset. When the new payment doesn’t fit the budget, homeowners often list sooner than planned. Supply grows from that. Demand doesn’t necessarily follow along.

Trade Tariffs and Construction Costs

Retaliatory tariffs on steel, aluminum, glass, and appliances are raising the cost of building new homes in every province. Higher input costs push developers to delay or cancel projects, which tightens future supply even while current sales stay soft. Most estimates put the added cost at $30,000 to $50,000 per new build. That gap between new-construction and resale pricing keeps steering buyers toward existing homes, and if it keeps widening the way it has this year, resale inventory will keep absorbing demand the new-build pipeline can’t handle.

Immigration and Population Shifts

Population growth has slowed for three straight quarters, driven by roughly a 20% drop in new permanent immigrants alongside more deaths than births nationally, according to Statistics Canada. That slowdown doesn’t land evenly. In Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and Calgary, immigrants who arrived two or three years ago are now credit-ready and moving from renting into ownership, which props up prices even as national growth cools. Alberta tells a slightly different story: it’s pulling in interprovincial migrants at a net pace of roughly 5,000 to 6,000 per quarter, according to TD Economics. International arrivals there have pulled back sharply, but domestic migration is picking up the slack.

Provincial Real Estate Market Breakdown

Ontario

Ontario remains a buyer’s market on paper, but there are early signs it’s stabilizing. Average price fell 1.9% month-over-month to $831,595, sitting 2.4% below June 2025 levels. Sales told a different story, climbing 4.7% from May to 18,051 transactions, a 5.5% annual gain, even while the benchmark price kept slipping. With 4.2 months of supply and 43,442 new listings on the market, buyers still hold the leverage, though that rising sales volume is a sign the gap is starting to narrow.

British Columbia

British Columbia remains the most buyer-friendly major provincial market in Canada, with 6.4 months of inventory. Average price edged up just 0.1% month-over-month to $946,878, while the benchmark price fell 5.0% year-over-year to $887,100, two numbers pulling in slightly different directions. Sales rose 6.4% from May to 7,225, helped along by 46,321 active listings, the largest supply cushion of any province tracked. No buyers in the country have more room to negotiate right now than the ones shopping in Vancouver and Victoria.

Quebec

Quebec’s average home price hit a record $568,942 in June 2026, up 4.2% year-over-year. Sales fell 8.7% month-over-month to 8,492. Even with that drop, the sales-to-new-listings ratio reached 60.6%, which still qualifies as a seller’s market by the province’s own definition. Montreal hit an all-time high of $689,908, a 5.0% annual gain, and Quebec City wasn’t far behind, up 8.5% year-over-year to $508,024.

Alberta and Saskatchewan

Alberta’s price growth has cooled to 3.2% annually after several years of sharp gains, while Saskatchewan’s prices climbed nearly 5% and remain the fastest-growing in the country. Alberta’s average price fell 1.1% month-over-month to $541,778. Sellers still hold the advantage there, with just 2.8 months of supply, even as growth settles back toward long-run averages. Saskatchewan posted the tightest inventory nationally at 2.5 months. Saskatoon sales climbed 12.5% from May, and Regina jumped 18.8% over the same stretch. Affordability in Saskatchewan sits close to its 30-year average, according to TD Economics, a sharp contrast with most other provinces where it’s gotten noticeably worse.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s average home price reached a record $424,251 in June 2026, a 2.2% annual gain driven by a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 72.6%. Outside the Prairies’ core, that ratio marks some of the tightest seller-market conditions anywhere in the country. Sales rose 1.9% from May to 1,856 transactions, and the benchmark price followed, climbing to $398,700, up 3.8% year-over-year.

Atlantic Canada

Newfoundland and Labrador led every province in annual price growth at 10.8%. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia posted far smaller moves: 5.9% growth and a 1.3% decline, respectively. Newfoundland’s average price rose to a record $375,334, with sales jumping 35.1% month-over-month to 554 transactions. Nova Scotia looks stranger on paper. Its average price fell 3.5% from May to $481,384, yet sales rose 8.9% at the same time, activity and price pulling in opposite directions. Prince Edward Island’s benchmark price barely moved, holding flat at a record $383,300, and its 5.9 months of supply hands buyers a bit more room than most other Atlantic markets offer.

How Rental Trends Reflect the Broader Property Market

Rental prices offer a useful cross-check on the home-buying picture. The national average rent fell 4.3% year-over-year to $2,033 in June 2026. British Columbia and Ontario carry the highest rents, tracking the same two provinces with the highest home prices. The Prairies show the opposite pattern: Saskatoon and Regina rents sit under $1,600 a month, in line with the region’s comparatively affordable benchmark prices. That overlap between rental and purchase pricing reinforces the same regional divide running through every other property metric this year.

How Provincial Property Policy Shapes Prices and Supply

Land transfer taxes, foreign buyer restrictions, and zoning rules all move the real cost of a property beyond its listed sale price, and they vary sharply by province. British Columbia’s Foreign Buyer Ban limits non-Canadian purchases of residential property across most of the province. Ontario charges a 25% Non-Resident Speculation Tax on homes bought by foreign nationals in most areas. On the supply side, Ontario’s Bill 23 sped up housing approvals and cut development charges, while British Columbia’s small-scale, multi-unit housing legislation now requires most municipalities to permit up to four units on a single residential lot. Both target the same shortfall the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has flagged nationally: 430,000 to 480,000 new homes need to go up every year through 2035 to restore affordability, and current construction isn’t hitting that mark in most provinces.

What the 2026 Forecast Means for Buyers and Sellers

National home sales are expected to grow modestly through the second half of 2026, but the market will keep splitting along regional lines rather than moving together. TD Economics forecasts national average prices dipping 0.3% for the full year, and sales aren’t expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2027. Ontario and British Columbia should both see improving sales late in 2026, though price growth in either province is expected to stay soft into 2027 if elevated inventory doesn’t clear faster than currently anticipated.

Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to keep leading provincial price growth through 2026 and 2027. Alberta looks likely to see improved sales and pricing next year, backed by solid interprovincial migration and steady hiring. Quebec is the one to watch on the downside: price growth there is expected to slow below 3% by 2027 as new listings rise and the labour market softens. National headlines matter less than location for anyone actually shopping. A buyer in Regina is negotiating in a completely different market than a buyer in Vancouver reading the same morning news.

Conclusion

Ten provinces, ten different markets. That’s the real story behind Canadian real estate in 2026. Buyers get room to negotiate in British Columbia and Ontario. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador are setting price records under tight supply at the very same time. National averages paper over that gap, but nobody actually buys a national average. Every purchase happens in one specific province, at a price and pace set by that province’s own supply, migration, and policy, not by the country as a whole. New Brunswick’s benchmark price of $342,600 makes the point on its own: less than half of what a buyer pays for the same benchmark home in British Columbia.

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